Brady threw 50 touchdown passes, and Moss caught 23, both single-season NFL records. Although the team seemed unstoppable, their offense was halted in the Super Bowl thanks to a perfect New York Giants scheme: hit Brady early and often, and prevent him from connecting with Randy Moss.

The offense became too predictable by the end of the year, as defenses realized that the most prolific offense in NFL history was also fairly one-dimensional.

Laurence Maroney led all Patriots rushers with 835 yards, and his indecisive running style prevented him from ever being a legitimate threat to defenses.

The 2007 Patriots offense could be summed up with the following three players: Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker.

This season, however, the Patriots benefit from having legitimate options throughout their offense.

Receivers:

Starting with the wide receivers, the 2011 Patriots include Deion Branch, Wes Welker, and of course, Chad Ochocinco. Welker is the game’s best slot receiver, impossible to defend due to the impeccable timing of his route-running.

Deion Branch has consistent hands and enough NFL experience to regularly find openings in coverage. He doesn’t drop many passes and although he has lost a step, is still quick enough to out-maneuver less agile defensive backs.

Chad Ochocinco has been a premier wide receiver for the better part of the decade, totaling six 1000 yard seasons in 10 seasons. He does drop the occasional pass, but his speed, quickness and size make him a threat after receiving the ball. He has a knack for getting open on 15-20 yard passing routes, and has the size and leaping-ability to win jump-balls.

Not to mention a potential emergence of a young receiver such as Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman or Taylor Price, which could prove invaluable in keeping defenses guessing.

This group of receivers can certainly hold a candle to the 2007 squad, but Randy Moss and Wes Welker’s unbelievable seasons may be hard to replicate under any circumstances.

Tight Ends:

While the receiving core may not be as dangerous as it was in 2007, the 2011 Patriots have two new weapons: Tight Ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.

Both players are mismatch nightmares. Hernandez has the speed of a wide receiver, while Gronk has the strength to run over would-be tacklers. Enhancing their physical attributes is their ability to catch the ball. Both showed impressive hands last season, highlighting the major difference with 2007 tight end Benjamin Watson.

The Boston Herald describes Gronkowsi’s performance in practices as “dominant…[making] every defender look overmatched and overwhelmed.” (Guregian).

Last (but potentially least), is rookie tight end Lee Smith. Smith was drafted to help fill the role of Alge Crumpler as the primary blocking tight end.

He has looked great in practices in the blocking game (as expected) but has shown a surprising knack for catching the football.

Brady now has 4 premier red zone options (Ochocinco, Hernandez, Gronkowski, Welker), after having just 2 in 2007 (Moss, Welker).

Running Backs:

Lastly, the Patriots have put together a consortium of running backs, including BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, and potentially Kevin Faulk or Sammy Morris.

The group features a powerful, downhill runner in Green-Ellis, as well as immense quickness in Woodhead and Vereen. While there is no premier back on the squad, each has his own positive attribute that can attack a defense.

Essentially, this 2011 team has more offensive options than the 2007 squad. The team cannot be predictable, simply because of the sheer number of players they have who can make significant contributions.

Clearly, every single skill player on the 2011 squad has the potential/has demonstrated the ability to penetrate opposing defenses. In contrast, the 2007 team had only three such threatening players.

The last segment of the offense that will be focused on is the offensive line. The 2007 line was one of the best lines the game had seen, but the 2011 line has significantly upgraded their right tackle, usurping Nick Kaczur with Sebastian Vollmer.

The 2011 line should have similar success.

The offense is clearly good, but will the 2011 defense be good enough to bring the Patriots back to the Super Bowl? They get to practice against the Patriots offense everyday, so we’ll see.

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Woodhead averaged 5.6 yards per carry, and defenses had a hard time locating him behind the bodies at the line of scrimmage due to Woodhead’s small stature.

Green-Ellis’s downhill running style and Woodhead’s scat-back abilities created a great complementary running game for the Patriots, as they were the first team to rush for over 75 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers this season.

However, much of the success on the ground came because of Tom Brady’s constant pressure on the opposition’s secondary.

Green-Ellis had ten games where he eclipsed 50 yards rushing, and 9 games where he eclipsed 70 yards. Every single game that Green-Ellis rushed for over 50 yards, Tom Brady’s passer rating was over 100.

There were four games during which Tom Brady’s quarterback rating slipped under 91.0. During those four games, against the New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens, San Diego Chargers, and Cleveland Browns, Green-Ellis rushed for 19, 20, 24 and 14 yards, respectively.

Essentially, for Green-Ellis and the Patriot ground attack to have success, Tom Brady needed to have success.

This issue came to the forefront in the playoff loss to the Jets. Rex Ryan consistently dropped eight men into coverage, using just a three man rush to pressure Brady. Not only was Brady sacked twice by a three man rush, but he was unable to find any open receivers (A similar strategy worked in suppressing Peyton Manning, so no Brady hate in that situation).

Ryan stuck with three-four man blitzes, daring the Patriots to run into his defense.

The Patriots were unable to run with much success, and by the time the offense found a rhythm there was not enough time to focus on the running game.

The bottom line is that the Pats needed a player who demanded respect from a defense from the get go, and neither Green-Ellis nor Woodhead have those capabilities.

This offseason, it is likely that Fred Taylor will retire, and it seems doubtful the Patriots will bring back mid-season acquisition Thomas Clayton.

That leaves two roster spots open for running back depth, and if Kevin Faulk is unable to return after tearing his ACL, then the Patriots will surely add depth to the RB position.

That being said, the Patriots offense was balanced this past season because Tom Brady had so much success passing.

For true balance to be gained, the Pats need to either draft or sign a game changing back. I’m not saying the team needs to completely overhaul the position or bring in an Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson, but they need to add a dynamic playmaker.

This offseason, Cedric Benson, Pierre Thomas (whom the Patriots have demonstrated interest in) and Ronnie Brown are guys who can shoulder the load of being an every down back, while Darren Sproles and Leon Washington could be brought in to spark the kick-return game while adding a big-play threat on offense.

Alternatively, if Mark Ingram or Ryan Williams are available in the later part of the first round of the draft, the Pats could choose one of them, but the first priority needs to be adding a pass rusher.

For the Green-Ellis fans: He’ll still get his touches, but he’ll be more of a short-yardage type back who gets 8 carries/game instead of 14-15. Essentially, he’ll take the roles of Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris.

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His playoff record coming into Sunday’s game against the New York Jets stood at a gaudy 14-4, but after the loss his playoff record is 14-5, still impressive, but not quite superhuman. In his last three post season starts, Brady is 0-3.

Obviously, this is a great factoid for Patriot haters to hang their hat on, but if we look at the last three (playoff) games there is only one game which you can point at Brady and say that he was a genuine liability to the Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens game last

Brady certainly did not play at his MVP level during the Super Bowl against the New York Giants, nor did he play at a high level against the Jets on Sunday.

However, in both games Brady was sacked five times. Generally, sacks put a team in a passing situation, often resulting in third-and-longs. Therefore, Brady became predictable, and was naturally less effective.

In the Giants loss, Brady did not have a statistically great game, but he threw for 229 yards and a touchdown, enough to put the Patriots in the lead and give the team a chance to win.

In the Jets game, Brady turned it on midway through the second half. Brady started hitting receivers, and put the Patriots within striking distance. But, the Jet offense made the Patriot defense look like Pop Warner, pee wee players.

Brady is certainly at fault for those two losses, but both those losses were team failures, not an individual failing to step up.

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So, after mauling supposedly top NFL teams, how can other, inferior teams even think about beating the Patriots?

It comes down to one thing: pass rush.

Not just some blitz packages here and there, but a consistent and powerful pass rush.

If Tom Brady has time to throw, he’ll put up better offensive numbers than his opponent, end of story.

Now, I understand that in the NFL any team can lose on any given day. However, the blueprint to beating the Patriots lies in heavily pressuring Brady.

Otherwise, it doesn’t matter how good the opposition’s offense is, or how great their secondary is, if they can’t put Brady in tough throwing situations (and the Pats have a darn good Offensive Line, so putting pressure on Brady is tough), then the Pats will win.

Obviously, even if you can put Brady under pressure, he can still shred a defense with quick outs to his phenomenally quick wide receivers.

Brady has to be hit early and often, otherwise he’ll enter a rhythm which he will not come out of, and very few teams are capable of outscoring the Pats when Brady is in his groove.

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His injury was a blessing to the Jets.

Obviously Revis is an outstanding corner, but so is Antonio Cromartie. The difference between the two is that Revis can cover anyone, while Cromartie excels at defending speed receivers.

Jets Defense, With Moss in the Game:

When Moss was hurt, Cromartie was defending Wes Welker, and Wes was tearing Cromartie to shreds. Cromartie did not have the quickness to match Welker’s abilities, and he is too tall and lanky to stick with Welker on quick cuts.

When Revis went down, Cromartie was put on Moss while Kyle Wilson was put on Wes Welker. Wilson was much better at handling Welker than Cromartie, and Antonio shut down Randy Moss, who is a speed receiver.

Essentially, in the first game, Tom Brady had one person to throw to if there was heavy pressure: Welker.

Brady’s Quick-Out Weapons:

Now, Brady has three. Wilson and Revis will be covering Deion Branch and Wes Welker.

Branch is a wily old veteran who still has the quickness and route running ability to beat a young corner like Wilson.

We have never seen Revis cover Wes Welker, but we have to assume that Revis will keep a not fully healthy Welker in check.

Nonetheless, Welker is still an option on quick routes where Brady needs to dump it off in a hurry.

If the Jets try to put Antonio Cromartie on Branch or Welker, he will be torched, as he is not quick enough to keep pace with either receiver. Essentially, Branch is a better receiver than the penalty-prone Kyle Wilson is a corner, and Antonio Cromartie won’t be able to cover him.

Brady’s other option is Danny Woodhead. I expect Woodhead to have a monster game against the Jets because of his abilities in the passing game. When the Jets defense gets after the quarterback, Brady will be able to dump it off to Woodhead.

If linebackers shade over to watch Woody over the top, then 6-11 yard passes will be open on their side of the middle of the field.

Brady is the best in the game at hitting his receivers in stride, so his receivers should be able to turn up-field after catching the pass and gain an extra few yards.

Overall, Brady now has three guys he can rely on when there are heavy blitzes, and initially against the Jets he only had one.

Further, the Jets better have a plan for stopping Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski has the speed to beat every Jet linebacker (with the exception of Calvin Pace, who will likely be pass rushing in most situations), and the size to run over the Jets safeties.

Gronk should be an absolute terror for the The 5′ 8″, 185 pound Jim Leonhard and the 6′ 2″, 205 pound Brodney Pool.

The Jets Run Defense: Susceptible to the Patriots’ Rushing Attack?

Lastly, look for a lot of draw plays from the Patriots in the early going of the game. The Jets love to turn on the heat, and Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis, being the 1-cut back that he is, has the power to get through most holes without dancing in the backfield.

The draw should soften the Jets front seven and also slow the pass rush.

Offensively this Patriots team matches up well against the Jets. Sans Moss, their offense is far more versatile.

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Last year, there were two clear “great” teams, Indianapolis and New Orleans. This year, though, the NFL has completely evened out.

3-7 teams are still breathing, trying to find away to slip into the playoffs. 8-2 teams aren’t without problems: The Jets won thanks to a miraculous 4th quarter comeback against a supposedly far inferior Houston Texans team.

Much like the NFL, the Patriots have turned themselves around. Last year, the team was unable to hold second half leads. They couldn’t make stops when they needed to. It seems like every time the Patriots needed a big play, their opponents took it.

This year, it’s been different. Against Baltimore, the Patriots defense stepped up in the fourth quarter. Against Pittsburgh, the Patriots offense came to play for a full 60 minutes.

In Miami, it was a combined demolition, Special Teams, Defense and Offense.

Now, there is the Indy game. The offense had two bad drives in the quarter, and the defense let Peyton Manning pick them apart.

Offensively, Danny Woodhead and Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis had some great runs, including Woody’s 25+ yard TD scamper. Tom Brady had his way with the Colts defense until late in the game.

But, when the team needed a big play, the big play was made. James Sanders intercepted an off-target Peyton Manning pass. Manning was under pressure because Jermaine Cunningham (rookie) was applying it.

Last year, the Patriots lost this game, 35-34. This year, they won it, 31-28.

Last season’s Indy game compared to this season’s Indy game represents the Patriots turnaround. In the close game, the Patriots made the big play when the Colts needed it most.

Unsatisfied by this win, because the Colts were still able to come back and make it a nail biter? Unsatisfied by this win, because Brady and the offense sputtered in the 4th?

31-28, Patriots win against the Indianapolis Colts. End of Story.

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1. Tom Brady is ahead of where he was at this time last year. He seems more comfortable in the pocket, and was throwing bullets right on target.
2. The Patriots’ tight end unit is the real deal. Aaron Hernandez is quick and fast, and showed his skills with a monster pickup in the first half. Gronkowski will be a big threat in the red zone, and has the hands to be dangerous in most passing situations. Alge Crumpler had a catch that got called back due to holding, but hopefully he can come back healthy next week.
3. Don’t get used to the Patriots defense from the first half, and don’t get used to the defense from the second half. The first half defense was absolutely ridiculous. Huge third down stops and very strong run defense. However, the second part of the game made the defense look very poor, but the unit had minimal rest. The pick six provided no rest, and the kickoff return put them on the field immediately after the half. Further, they were playing loose defense to prevent big plays throughout most of the game.
4. This defense will improve. It is young, fast and talented, and the secondary looked very good when they had to make stops. Other than a few third down pickups made by the best 3rd down receiver in the NFL (Chad Ochocinco), Butler and McCourty played very well. Butler did get burned once, but again it was by Chad Ochocinco, and most teams don’t have wide outs with Chad’s abilities.
5. Pat Chung WILL be huge in the run defense. He is a hard hitter, consistent tackler, and even showed ability in covering tight ends and playing over the top defense.
6. The Pats offense is Good. They torched a very formidable Cincinnati Bengals’ defense. Enough said.
7. The offensive line is not going to be as big a problem as we thought. Despite having three backup players in the line at one point, Brady had all day to throw, and went without a sack.
8. The special teams will be extremely dangerous. Brandon Tate is a great return man, and the coverage units looked very fast on punts and kickoffs.
9. The Patriots have the best receiving group in the NFL. Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Brandon Tate, the tight ends. Also, look for currently injured Taylor Price and Julian Edelman to be difference makers.
10. The pass rush is not garbage. Phew. It feels great to say that. The linebackers played great (in pass defense especially, with Guyton’s pick six), but Palmer was under pressure fairly often.

Overall, remember that it is early in the season, but also realize that this Patriots team will improve.

As a Pats fan, I must admit that I was frustrated. I mean, a fifth rounder for Santonio Holmes? Considering New England needs a wide out, he could be useful, even if suspended for four games.

But, are the Pats actually the third best team in their division? Let me just say that it is too early to tell. The Patriots have 12 draft picks, and Bill Belichick  has hinted at trading up, potentially spending one of his three second rounders.

Also, before we write the Jets a ticket to the Super Bowl, let’s remember that they lost their best RB from last season, and while they do have LT, Shonn Greene and Leon Wahington, they lost the RB who led the NFL in yards last year.

Plus, they have Mark Sanchez at the helm. I think Sanchez will be a good QB in the NFL, but Sanchez threw 20 picks last year, and was near the bottom of the league in passer rating. If the Jets want to make the Super Bowl, or utilize the weapons they have at the receiver position, Sanchez will have to be better.

Also, the Jets have a very volatile locker room, and while talented, if the team morale drops, the team’s stats will too. Look at the Broncos last season, after starting of 6-0, they went on a stretch of losing.

After losing one game, they were unable to prevent it from snowballing, and I think part of the problem was a lack of trust in their coach (locker room problem). Josh McDaniels was calling out players left and right.

All I’m saying is that locker room problems cannot be underrated. If the Jets get off to a slow start, they may not be able to dig themselves out of the ditch, with multiple locker room distractions.

The Dolphins are seemingly just as talented, but their once strong running game has become inconsistent, with Ricky Williams a year older and Ronnie Brown unable to stay healthy.

The addition of Karlos Dansby will help tremendously, cementing a poor run defense, and the Jets were able to acquire their biggest need, an offensive play-maker in Brandon Marshall.

The ‘Phins gave up little of their “future”, by trading two second rounders over the next two years.

To me, the Jets and Dolphins are both as good if not better than the Pats on paper, but let’s remember how the Patriots won their first Super Bowl.

A superb defense and an above average offense.

The Pats definitely have the latter, even without Wes Welker, and the Pats have 12 draft picks (the majority of them hopefully addressing defense) to bolster their defensive unit.

If the Pats can address the pass rush effectively, the secondary will inherently become better, and Darius Butler certainly has great potential, showing great cover skills last season.

I still have the Pats winning the division, partly because I think with Sebastian Vollmer playing tackle instead of Kaczur the Pats will be able to deal with blitzes (especially against the Jets) much more effectively.

You look at what both Miami and New York have done, add talent at the expense of locker room composure.

What am I saying?

The AFC East is finally a three team division, one of the strongest in the league.

New York and Miami have both improved vastly, but do not discount the team’s losses, or what they’ve given up. The Patriots have lost little from last season, while adding back-ups and depth.

It’s too early to decide who will ultimately have the upper hand, because the draft can change the outlook of any team; for better or for worse.

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Well, looking at the 2003 NFL Draft (six-seven years to determine a player’s worth in the NFL seems reasonable), the drafting strategy of New England seems exceptionally brilliant.

First Round:

In the first round, 32 players were taken. Of those 32, 23 belong to an NFL franchise or were released into free agency this off season. Players who have been free agents for the past two years are considered “finished,” and therefore are considered out of the league (despite being free agents).

Of the 23 players still in the league, 12 of them are Pro Bowlers.

Second Round:

In the second round of the 2003 NFL Draft, 32 more players were taken with their hopes of playing in the NFL finally fulfilled.

Unfortunately for some, only 20 of them are currently living the dream; that is 20 of the 32 drafted players are in the NFL right now.

There were five Pro Bowlers drafted that round, out of the 20 total players.

Salaries:

The Average amount of guaranteed money assigned to a first round pick totaled at $6.482 million dollars in 2003, and in 2007 it was $10.86 million; the average guaranteed contract is increasing.

At 67% over four years, lets say (for the sake of argument) an increase of 16.8% per year in average guaranteed money to a 1st round pick, although many experts agree that the average contract is rising exponentially.

Nonetheless, a growth of 16.8% yearly means that in 2008, the average amount of guaranteed money can be expected to lay at $12.68 million/year.

In 2008, the average salary of a second round draft pick was $1,932,000 in guaranteed cash, $1.932 million.

This sum is 1/6 of the average 1st round salary.

Let’s go back to the number of NFL caliber players in each round.

In the 1st round, 72% of the players have had reasonable success, while in the 2nd round, 63% have remained in the league.

However, for your chance to increase 9% drafting a legitimate player, is it worth paying 600% as much? Not quite…

One could argue, well, if I’m drafting a pro bowl player, then yes, I’d pay that much more.

In terms of Pro Bowlers, 37% (34% excluding Larry Johnson, whose career has presumably blown up) of the players drafted in the 1st round are Pro Bowlers, and 16% of the 2nd round players hold the same status.

Essentially, there’s about a 20% higher chance of you drafting a Pro Bowler in the 1st round than in the second, that’s one in five players.

Again, I’ll ask the question: Is a 20% chance worth a 600% increase? If you are a team who is in dire  need of players who can make an immediate difference, then yes, pay up.

Overall:

But, if you’re the Patriots, and already have a core of star-caliber players, then this money saved can be used retaining the team’s free agents, along with making their stadium better or paying a big name free agent (okay, well, hypothetically).

Obviously, a team needs to draft first rounders to keep adding youth to their star players, and the Pats do need to draft a “now-impact” type pass-rusher in the draft this season, and will most likely do so in the first round.

However, if New England can hit on two of their three 2nd round draft picks, something that is not out of question as last year the only legitimate bust from the 2nd round was Ron Brace (and the jury is still out on him), then they should be poised for future succes.

About those other second rounders: Pat Chung was a solid special teams player, Darius Butler displayed some flashes of brilliance, and Sebastian Vollmer shut down the likes of Dwight Freeney.

So, if the Pats can hit on the majority of their second rounders, then they’ll have built a good supporting cast of young players from the past two years of drafting, along with the starting star players and the potentially solid 1st round pick.

Thus, I propose that the question concerning stocking up on second rounders is very conditional.

If a team needs “now” impact players, then keeping their first rounders should serve them well, but if looking for more salary cap space and a strong group of supporting cast players which a team can count on to provide valuable talent, then picking up second round picks is a blessing.

What do you think? Are the Pats doing the right thing for the team (both now and in the long run) trying to stockpile second rounders? Should they try at all costs to grab first rounders?

If you enjoyed these ideas, you might want to see what the Pats can do to Contend for the SB Next Season.

Obviously, I’m presenting these articles well before the season starts, even before the draft, meaning that draft day selections or blockbuster trades could greatly alter the look of any of the aforementioned teams. That being said, here is the analysis for next season’s New England Patriots.

Offense:

Offensively, the Patriots are set at quarterback, and have a very solid offensive line. Sebastian Vollmer proved he was a dominant tackle, shutting down every end he faced (including Dwight Freeney). This gives the Patriots more depth at offensive line, something they have actually lacked in years past.

In terms of running back, the Patriots could use help, but the situation is not terrible. Laurence Maroney is a below-average every down back in the NFL, and will crack off a big run now and then. Last season, he was healthy, and he posted decent numbers, averaging just below four yards per carry.

The Pats do not need to kill themselves to find a starting, pro-bowl running back, but adding a backup who can complement Maroney would be helpful.

In terms of wide receiver, the team has some questions. When Wes Welker returns, he would be the obvious number two behind Randy Moss. Behind Wes would be Julian Edelman, who was very good filling in for Welker, and showed a lot of passion in the playoff games.

After Edelman, Brandon Tate should have a role. He was hurt for most of last season, but many scouts say he could develop into a nice number two receiver if healthy.

Hey! Four good receivers, sounds good, right?

Unfortunately, Welker is probably not going to dress up for the first few games of the season, meaning the Patriots have questions at the #3 slot and beyond. I think they’ll address this need in the draft, probably with a second round and fourth round pick.

The team just added Alge Crumpler, a veteran tight end who can catch and block, and I think he’ll fit nicely into the Patriots’ scheme (smart, versatile player).

Defense:

So many questions surrounded the Patriot secondary last season. However, the fastest way to fix a shaky secondary is by adding a pass rush.

The secondary was not nearly as bad as it seemed, as give any quarterback in the NFL 5-6 seconds to throw the ball and he can shred a defense. The Patriots’ primary concern as a team is the lack of a pass rusher.

I expect them to draft an OLB/DE in the first round, and probably another front seven player in the second.

Keeping Wilfork was key, as was Banta-Cain.

The secondary was young last season, and showed promise (Brandon Meriweather was a Pro-Bowler, James Sanders seemed to finally gain consistency) and Leigh Bodden should anchor an average unit of corners.

Darius Butler, I think, can develop into a solid corner, and next year we’ll know for sure.

Overall:

The Patriots are one-two good draft picks away from keeping their top spot in the AFC East, but as of now the Jets seem to be a better team.

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