Obviously, I’m presenting these articles well before the season starts, even before the draft, meaning that draft day selections or blockbuster trades could greatly alter the look of any of the aforementioned teams. That being said, here is the analysis for next season’s New England Patriots.

Offense:

Offensively, the Patriots are set at quarterback, and have a very solid offensive line. Sebastian Vollmer proved he was a dominant tackle, shutting down every end he faced (including Dwight Freeney). This gives the Patriots more depth at offensive line, something they have actually lacked in years past.

In terms of running back, the Patriots could use help, but the situation is not terrible. Laurence Maroney is a below-average every down back in the NFL, and will crack off a big run now and then. Last season, he was healthy, and he posted decent numbers, averaging just below four yards per carry.

The Pats do not need to kill themselves to find a starting, pro-bowl running back, but adding a backup who can complement Maroney would be helpful.

In terms of wide receiver, the team has some questions. When Wes Welker returns, he would be the obvious number two behind Randy Moss. Behind Wes would be Julian Edelman, who was very good filling in for Welker, and showed a lot of passion in the playoff games.

After Edelman, Brandon Tate should have a role. He was hurt for most of last season, but many scouts say he could develop into a nice number two receiver if healthy.

Hey! Four good receivers, sounds good, right?

Unfortunately, Welker is probably not going to dress up for the first few games of the season, meaning the Patriots have questions at the #3 slot and beyond. I think they’ll address this need in the draft, probably with a second round and fourth round pick.

The team just added Alge Crumpler, a veteran tight end who can catch and block, and I think he’ll fit nicely into the Patriots’ scheme (smart, versatile player).

Defense:

So many questions surrounded the Patriot secondary last season. However, the fastest way to fix a shaky secondary is by adding a pass rush.

The secondary was not nearly as bad as it seemed, as give any quarterback in the NFL 5-6 seconds to throw the ball and he can shred a defense. The Patriots’ primary concern as a team is the lack of a pass rusher.

I expect them to draft an OLB/DE in the first round, and probably another front seven player in the second.

Keeping Wilfork was key, as was Banta-Cain.

The secondary was young last season, and showed promise (Brandon Meriweather was a Pro-Bowler, James Sanders seemed to finally gain consistency) and Leigh Bodden should anchor an average unit of corners.

Darius Butler, I think, can develop into a solid corner, and next year we’ll know for sure.

Overall:

The Patriots are one-two good draft picks away from keeping their top spot in the AFC East, but as of now the Jets seem to be a better team.

Image Credits: blog.masslive.com

First, let’s put this game into perspective. The Pats are the best team this decade, and are the first dynasty of this new  millennium. They played a bad game, and this one loss does not characterize the Patriots’ dynasties.

I’m not going to spend time discussing the game, because in all honesty, there really isn’t much to discuss.

Tom Brady played a terrible game, the wide receivers played a bad game, the defense was laid out to dry, constantly trying to stop the Ravens from their own 30 yard line, and the special teams were sporadically good (some good returns but awful coverage).

That pretty much sums it up.

Brady couldn’t make a pass, and you have to wonder how much of his performance was injury related, as he was throwing ducks throughout the game, unable to zip the ball with a tight spiral consistently. If he did have a broken index finger, that would certainly play a role in his throws.

Randy Moss didn’t have a great game, but he did have a few catches for first downs, and he too was apparently banged up (knees and back).

I am not going to sit here and make excuses for New England. They came out flat and trying to look for a single play which sums up the game would be difficult, because there were so many (key word here) BAD plays by the Pats.

So, after a truly pathetic game, what are some keys which the Patriots need to fix going into next season to go back and contend for the Super Bowl.

In my opinion, these are the key areas the Pats need to focus on:

• Finding a pass rusher/OLB
• Brady coming back healthy
• Receivers playing well potentially without Welker
• The right side of the Patriot line (consistent ground game)
• Defensive cohesiveness/experience
• Coordinators

I know it seems like a lot to handle, but some of these things are expected to happen (Brady’s health early on and the receivers playing well). I think Edelman will continue to develop, and the right side of the line can be bolstered if Sebastian Vollmer plays at the level which we’ve seen him play at (against Dwight Freeney). The defensive cohesiveness just takes time and working together.

One of the most pressing issue that New England faces is finding a player who can rush a quarterback with consistency. Tully Banta-Cain is not a great player, but he is the Patriot’s best pass rusher. He should be a role player on this team, playing in obvious passing situations.

Next year, with their first round mid-twenty pick, they need to draft a pass rusher. Obviously, if they find a guy who they think fits their system, they may look in the second round for that type player.

Preferably, they will draft a linebacker early, because other than Jerod Mayo and maybe Gary Guyton, the Patriot ‘backers are lacking. Adalius Thomas probably won’t be back next year, and Tully Banta-Cain is a good 5th or 6th linebacker.

I do think Derrick Burgess can make an impact if he stays, but he is more of a pass rushing specialist, as he is not the same stud he was earlier in his career.

So, the Patriots should try to find an outside linebacker, because at this point Mayo is great and Gary Guyton is a solid player. Guyton developed with Mayo’s absence, and he has the physical qualities (speed and strength) to have reasonable success.

Secondly, they need to find a way to develop consistency on the ground. I still have faith in Laurence Maroney to average 3.9-4.1 yards per carry and I am willing to give him one more year to be the player we thought we were getting when he was drafted.

Welker is most likely going to be out in the beginning of the season with his knee injury (depending on recovery time his return could even be late in the year). With Welker out, the Pats cannot use those 4-12 yard passes as a running game. I think this might come from a new player on the right side of the O-line.

Nick Kaczur is an okay player, and Stephen Neal, although a great player, is well out of his prime and at this point thinking about retirement. The Pats should be able to find their RG or RT with success, as they have had success drafting linemen in the past.

Next season, Sebastian Vollmer might see more snaps instead of Kaczur, depending on their performances in training camps and pre-season.

Thirdly, Brady needs to come back, fully healthy and ready to play. This season, he came back still finding a rhythm, and he was banged up week to week. He hurt his shoulder in the pre-season, hurt his ribs early on, re-injured them, and broke his finger later on in the year. Essentially, he was never fully healthy and came into the year trying to recover from a serious injury.

I know he had his second best statistical season, but it just seemed like he was not the same quarterback he was in ’07 (or even previous years) in terms of consistency and command.

Tom will have a good off-season, spending time with his family, and he should be able to fully recover, emotionally and physically for the year.

The receiving corps will have to improve upon the season.

Randy Moss is an amazing receiver, but has trouble during certain stretches. He did have 13 TD’s and over 1000 yards over the regular season. The potential loss of Welker early next year will hurt, but Julian Edelman seems like a solid replacement.

Yards after the catch were questioned in Edelman’s ability, and one play that might be forgotten is on a 4th and long play against the Ravens, nullified by a penalty. Nevertheless, Edelman made the catch on the next play for a first down, converting the 4th & 17 play to prolong the game.

However, I want to go back to that initial play. Brady threw a screen pass to Edelman, and from there the game looked over. A Baltimore defender was poised to make a tackle.

At that point, Edelman juked, ran forward and met more defenders, he broke one tackle, spun out of another hut and dove with defenders all around him for 11 yards and the first down. Essentially, it was a ridiculous effort, and if there comes a time next year when Welker and Edelman can finally play together, fully healthy, with a Randy Moss, watch out.

Sam Aiken is a decent 4th option, and hopefully he’ll be okay after hurting his head in today’s game. He has okay speed and while he has trouble reeling in the long ball he makes the easy catches most of the time. Also, I would like to see what Brandon Tate can do after being hurt this season.

Isiah Stanback seems like a decent player. He made the catches during his limited opportunities, but I question his desire to win. After the Baltimore loss, he went over and shook the hands of the opposition. He had a gigantic grin on his face, and while it’s a good thing to have sportsmanship, he could show some disappointment that his season was over.

I think a move will be made to sure up this receiving corp, especially without Welker for some time.

Fourthly, I think the Patriot secondary needs to build on this season. They came out during some plays and made huge interceptions or tackles, but they were inconsistent and clearly a young unit. Leigh Bodden was one of the only consistent factors. Brandon Meriweather seems finally poised to develop into a really good safety (pro bowl this year), and continual improvement over the season. James Sanders finally played very well this year after losing his starting job, wrapping up ball carriers and covering well.

However, despite some players who had success, the secondary was clearly taken advantage of at times because of their youth. Obviously, the only fix for this is to gain experience, and with one season together as a group, they should come out next year playing much more consistently. I like Darius Butler’s coverage abilities and drive, Bodden showed he’s solid, and Meriweather can be great at times. Hopefully Brandon can build up consistency, and James Sanders can build upon this season.

Jonathan Wilhite is an good option at the 3rd corner, but I’m sure New England can find a better option. I think Terrence Wheatley might have an impact if he can stay healthy, but he is an unknown. Shawn Springs is old, and maybe during some packages he plays assuming he stays.

But, with one year under their belt, I think this unit comes out with more success next season as a group but for that to happen, Vince Wilfork, the plug down low, needs to be re-resigned.

And, all season I was talking about it, the defense never seemed cohesive, and they never seemed to play as a unit. At the end of the year they started to play as a team occasionally, but again, I think that this was a very young defense and the only way for them to gain this “cohesiveness” is to play together, which they now have done for a year.

In all, I think the defense comes out much better next season, with the possible addition of a few players through the draft or free agency.

One thing that really does worry me, and is my next point, are the coordinators. I wrote an article about offensive play calling (http://newenglandsportsonline.com/blog/for-the-patriots-a-lack-of-change-is-the-problem/) but I continue to stand by my opinion that Bill O’Brien needs to be revoked of his play calling.

The offense was predictable, and throughout the season the Patriot offense has had to burn a timeout because of the inability to get the play in time. O’Brien is not necessarily a bad coach, but he is not a good play caller. Every down seemed to be predicted, especially against this Ravens team.

The offense was unimaginative and uncreative, and I think these crazy plays and play calls which set up the next plays have been lost, and as a result the excitement players have on offense fades.

Someone who knows what he’s doing (like Weis or McDaniels) needs to take the helm of play calling and the offensive coordinator position.

Belichick had too much to handle this year, dealing with the coordinators, the offensive play calling at teams, defensive play calling, coaching, picking players, etc. If coaches/coordinators are found, I can see this team being much more successful than they were this year.

Defensively, Dean Pees is good at grooming young players, and considering the youth he had on defense this season, their inconsistencies should be excused. Next season, however, I expect more from Pees and his unit.

If it cannot produce, then a change might have to be made. Still, this is a topic for next season.

In my opinion, the number one, most important thing the Patriots need to do? Come back next year, hungry, ready to play. Not just going through the motions. I mean determined and passionate about every single play they make.

We’ll see how this off-season plays out, and if the Pats can improve their roster/coaching staffs.

I still think the Pats are a playoff team, but at this point, not nearly a Super Bowl contender. They’re still a solid team, but at this point not one of the elite.

To return to that status, they will have to have a very successful off-season.

Another player under scrutiny was Randy Moss. People thought he was not giving his all to the organization, and there was severe skepticism towards the receiver after being sent home for being late a few weeks prior to the game. Last week he played well, with a TD catch, but this week he torched the Jags’ secondary, as he caught 3 touchdowns, the 4th time he has achieved this feat as a Patriot.

Seemingly as always, Wes Welker racked up 10+ catches, as he caught 13 balls. Despite missing two games, Welker leads the NFL in receptions with 122 catches. Astonishingly, this is 21 more catches than the Brandon Marshall, second place in recepetions with just 101 catches.

Based on his average, had Welker not missed those two games he would have over 138 catches.

Sammy Morris also played very well, as he had multiple long runs in the first half which set up touchdowns, including one short, goal line score from himself. Laurence Maroney, after fumbling a goal line handoff, saw limited action. If he wants to continue to have the opportunity to play (something he was becoming accustomed to), he’ll have to hold the ball.

Despite the stellar offensive performance, it was the defense that stepped up. The Patriot defensive squad held a potent Jacksonville offense built around small and powerful Maurice Jones-Drew to just 7 points. Jones-Drew was held to just 63 yards on 18 carries, a not so solid 3.5 average.

In addition, the defense forced two turnovers, both interceptions, demonstrating respectable pass coverage. Shawn Springs and Brandon Meriweather both picked off Jacksonville QB David Garrard.

The horrific pass rush from New England? Not so horrific anymore, as the defense mustered two sacks from Gary Guyton and Tully Banta-Cain.

I would like to mention James Sanders, who after losing his starting spot to Brandon McGowan continued to work hard, improve his game, and has now regained his role. McGown, still a solid player, continues to contribute, as he assisted in 2 tackles. Also, Jerod Mayo seems to be breaking out of his sophomore slump, as he had 11 solo tackles.

The unit is seemingly coming together, generating respectable rush against opposing QB’s and making the most of opportunities in the secondary.

The defense has put together multiple high-quality performances now, against the Bills, Panthers and now Jags. The offense, finally generating some power after relying on the defense in the mentioned games, is also continuing to gel.

Essentially, this team is hitting its stride, and now after clinching the AFC East it will roll into the playoffs with some important momentum.

This team was known for making spectacular second half adjustments and preying on opponents’ weaknesses which were noticed throughout the game. Unfortunately, this year has been a vastly different story.

The Patriots lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Jets, Broncos, Dolphins, and most notably, the Colts. In their most recent failure against Miami, the Pats managed just 7 second half points, a fluky touchdown to Sam Aiken who made a great reception and ran 70 yards to the end zone.

In all of these contests, the other team has seemingly shut down the juggernaut Patriot offense in the second half, with Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Tom Brady and a decent running game.

What does this say about the team, offensively?

Does New England not have the personnel/players to succeed? Do the players get fatigued? Is Tom Brady not fully healthy? Why aren’t adjustments being made on New England’s side of the ball?

Well, the Pats are not short of talent, as previously mentioned, Welker and Moss are two of the most dangerous receivers in the NFL, Sam Aiken is developing into a solid third option, and the Pats have a viable running back in Laurence Maroney (8 TDs in 7 games).

Offensively, fatigue is never as much of an issue as it is on the defensive side of the ball, with all the opportunities for substitutions.

Tom Brady is clearly healthy, as he put up monster numbers against weaker teams such as the Buccaneers, and managed solid numbers against even the Colts. Is he at his 2007 form? Maybe not at this point, but he is certainly at a high enough level where he can be considered healthy.

So, this leaves the question, why doesn’t the team seem to make any offensive adjustments? Brady’s offenses have always had great offensive coordinators, with names such as Charlie Weis and Josh McDaniels. This year, with Bill O’Brien holding the reigns of the offense and mainly in charge of playcalling, there seems to be a problem.

Bill Belichick deserves some negativity, but it is O’Brien who is unable to make his unit better in the second half.

Against the Dolphins, not only were offensive adjustments not made, but the play calling was borderline horrific.

The fullback run with a yard to go inside the five during the second quarter was a poor idea. Morris never had the opportunity to build up speed to plow through the line of scrimmage, as he started just a couple of yards behind Brady. A simple running play would have been a better option for Morris, or a quarterback sneak with Brady.

Against the Colts, Kevin Faulk was stopped short on 4th down. O’Brien had the right idea, a quick slant to Welker or Faulk, but why have Kevin catch the ball on a quick out?

Instead of breaking out on his route, Faulk should have broken in. The linebacker covering Faulk, shown in the replay, was clearly a step out of position but had time to react, as the ball was in the air for a long enough period of time. Had Kevin broken inside at the same distance, the linebacker would have half as much time to react, and Faulk could have dived forwards and saved the game for New England.

The time the ball would have been in the air would have been shorter had Faulk cut up the middle, giving the linebacker less time to react.

Two examples of bad play calls by O’Brien, both in important situations.

I don’t think you need examples of situations where the Patriot offense looked flat in the second half. I can think of at least eight games (out of 12 the team has played) where the New England second half offense looked like the Browns’ offense.

Defensively, the Patriots are not an awful team.

They have an average defense. Unfortunately the defensive backs take a lot of heat, when it is the front seven who cannot generate pressure on quarterbacks and give wide outs all day to run their routes. Some heat is deserved, like Meriweather’s blown coverate in New Orleans, but some pressure they take is just unwarranted.

A perfect example came in the Dolphins game. Greg Camarillo had time to run a double move route, with Jonathan Wilhite in coverage. At the last second, Camarillo turned around in button hook fashion and caught the ball, with Wilhite right behind him.

Yes, Wilhite slightly stumbled, but after over 4-5 seconds in coverage, wide receivers inevitably get open.

Nevertheless, holding the Dolphins to 22 points should have been enough. However, the Patriot offense managed to run minimal time off the clock in their two possessions in the final few minutes (the defense was able to make two stops), and gave Miami the chance to win.

I never thought it would come to this, but it is the Patriots’ offense which is at fault.

Yes, the defense can play better, but the Patriots’ offense, with the lineup they have, should be able to put up massive numbers against Miami, and should be more than competitive in “shootouts”.

Matt Cassel torched the Dolphins, and Tom Brady is capable of doing the same (is there really any question of that). So, Bill O’Brien, if you want to keep your job, you need to think about strategies that put the stacked New England offense in a position to win. If not, then you will be changed.

Charlie Weis, anybody?

1. Get the ground game going. If Laurence Maroney can have early down success, even if it is just 3-4 yard carries, then the Colts’ front 7 will be forced to take an early beating. If Indy’s front seven gets exhausted in the second half, Brady should have all day to find targets, and screen passes to Kevin Faulk will be extremely effective, as Colt defenders will have a hard time pursuing the play.
2. Defensively, control the line of scrimmage. Obviously, the O-line should do the same, but for New England to dethrone the Colts, Peyton Manning will have to be put under pressure. New England has a strong run defense, and Indy has virtually no ground game, so Manning will be forced to pass. Unfortunately, that’s how the Colts have reached 8-0. If the Pats’ can get pressure on Peyton, the newly improved secondary should be able to have reasonable success.
3. Brandon Meriweather. Jerod Mayo. They have been playing extremely well over the past few weeks, and their success needs to continue. Meriweather will be calling plays for the DB’s, and he needs to make sure that he plays smart, like his mentor Rodney Harrison. The Patriots’ cornerbacks are much better than they have been in recent years, and should give the Colts’ wide outs a run for their money. Dallas Clark has been a key target for Peyton Manning, but tonight he will be playing the likes of Jerod Mayo and Adalius Thomas, both physical players who should be able to keep up with the quick tight end. If Mayo has success, Clark should be neutralized.

Overall, this game is a hard game to look at. The Colts are obviously 8-0, but they’ve not been matched up against great teams. So far they’ve beaten the likes of the .500 Jagurs as well as the abysmal Tennessee Titans and St. Louis Rams. They’ve only played 2 winning teams, the Cardinals and the Texans, who have a combined record of 10-7. The Colts are certainly a great team, and this will be a good barometer for their future, but if New England can succeed in doing the above mentioned items, the Colts will be 8-1.

The Pats succeeded against the Falcons last week thanks to the a strong running game opening up the passing attack, as Fred Taylor ran all over the Falcons’ D compiling over 100 yards of rushing.

However, New England knew that they would not be able to pound the ball against the Ravens defense as Baltimore’s’ defense, anchored by Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Haloti Ngata, lead the league in rushing defense. The Pats managed just 85 yards rushing on 30 tries, resulting in a meager 2.8 yards per run.

The Patriots worked quickly and used different passing packages to open up receivers. At one point, Randy Moss was double teamed going down the sideline allowing Ben Watson a free release up the seam, enabling a 30 yard pass completion from Brady.

With all the hype surrounding the Ravens’ D, the Patriots unit seemed to fly under the radar, but it was because of them that New England won the game. They managed their first interception of the season, but also stopped the high-flyin’ Baltimore offense when it counted most, halting the Ravens as they tried to score the game-winning TD.

Tom Brady and the Patriot offense kept the Ravens’ off the field holding the ball for almost 36 minutes, winning the time of possession battle. Brady had his first touchdown pass to a wide receiver on the season, and unsurprisingly, Randy Moss was its recipient.

Wes Welker also made his presence felt in his return from a knee injury, catching six passes for 48 yards.

Over the first three weeks of the season, New England had struggled to put the ball in the endzone while working in the Red Zone. They erased all concerns, going 3 of 5 against the stingy Ravens’ defense, a unit which allowed their first rushing touchdown of their season.

The offense did put up 27 points, but, unlike previous seasons, the New England defense deserves a lot of credit for the win. They did give up a large chunk of yards to Baltimore (363 total) but they looked great on deep passing attempts made by Joe Flacco, something that has been severely lacking over the past seasons. Darius Butler made a spectacular coverage play to stop a 50 yard touchdown pass, as did Brandon Meriweather, who sprinted across the field to dive in front of Derrick Mason, breaking up a clear touchdown pass.

Brandon Meriweather had a spectacular game, almost intercepting two passes, breaking up a few attempts, and managing nine total tackles.

Meriweather and the rest of the Patriots defense have been strong against the long pass this season, something that has been a major weakness to the team since 2004. Even with Asante Samuel and Rodney Harrison, the Pats were weak against long passing attempts.

It seems the times have changed, as a youthful, speedy New England secondary clamped its teeth on the Ravens’ passing attack, holding Flacco to just 264 yards.

This is an extremely bright looking secondary displayed by New England, and it is really starting to remind me of the days when we had Ty Law and Otis Smith patrolling the depths of the football field.

Of course, it’s too early to keep that comparison a legitimate thought, but if the secondary continues to perform the way it has been, then it will become a strength of the Patriots.

Also, Gary Guyton is doing a great job as middle linebacker for the Pats’. There was a time when he was going to be the reason the Patriots would not win games, as he could not fill the role vacated by Jerod Mayo. However, he has done a great job using his speed and strength to succeed. When Jerod Mayo gets back, the two will be a force to be reckoned with, as both are fast, physical and tackling machines.

Overall, a great win from New England, as Brady seems to be getting back into a rhythm, while the Patriot defense is beginning to gel.

It had to be a well played game to beat the previously unbeaten Ravens, and it was, as the Patriots won 27-21.

The team made a statement against a strong team, showing that they are no longer led by an injured player trying to figure things out on offense, nor are they easily passable defensively.

They were able to limp to an 11-5 season last year, despite a depleted starting line, both offensively and defensively. Star quarterback Tom Brady was injured, as were running backs Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris, along with guard Stephen Neal.

Defensively, the Patriots were missing the majority of their secondary, including Rodney Harrison and Terrence Wheatley. At linebacker, the Pats were without their strong outside linebacker Adalius Thomas, and were thin at the inside linebacker position as well.

The Patriots need to stay healthy to win next season’s Super Bowl. New England can win games despite injuries; however, the team will need to be at full strength to win a title.

Offensively, the Pats merely need to come close to what they did over the past two seasons, and they will blow away their opponents. With Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker, the passing game will not be an issue.

The Patriots acquired RB Fred Taylor over the offseason. This means that they will feature three prime running backs: Maroney, Morris and Taylor. Each back can put up solid offensive numbers, and each poses a threat for the defense. Taylor and Morris are both hammering backs, and if they have the opportunity to lower their shoulders, they will take it. Maroney is a little bit more of a scat back, and while he can run defenders over, he can also use his quickness to blow by them.

Defensively, the Patriots have the best defensive line in the NFL, and only improved it by picking Ron Brace in the draft. With Brace, Wilfork can get rest while the offensive line still must deal with a monster defender in terms of size.

At linebacker, the Patriots are good, but not great. Jerod Mayo was the rookie of the year last season, and he will only get better. Tedy Bruschi will play alongside him, and while Bruschi is aging, he still makes smart plays and tackles with great consistency. At outside linebacker, the Patriots have Adalius Thomas, who is not only a threat to sack the quarterback, but also is a dominant run stuffer, who can cover the best tight ends in the league.

Opposite Thomas will be Shawn Crable or Tully Banta-Cain. This position is the biggest hole in New England’s defensive lineup; however, Bill Belichick and the rest of the coaching staff have displayed a great amount of confidence towards Crable, and believe he can be a great player. If the genius responsible for three Patriots’ titles puts his trust in a player, you can believe it’s true.

In terms of New England’s secondary, they can be dominant if they remain healthy. In the secondary, Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders are solid safeties. Behind Sanders and Meriweather on the depth charts is Patrick Chung, who can be the hard hitting safety the Pats missed with the absence of Rodney Harrison.

Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden, the two apparent starters for the Patriots, have both proven themselves to be successful corners in this league. Behind Bodden sits younger corners including Jonathan Wilhite, Terrence Wheatley, and Darius Butler. Butler was considered the best corner back available in the draft by some, while Wheatley and Wilhite both demonstrated solid play last year. Wilhite started to come into his own at the end of the year, while Wheatley was able to shut down Reggie Wayne of the Colts before he was injured.

For the Patriots to miss the playoffs, they would need to catch the injury bug. Literally, they would need to have more injuries than last season, because this year they are deeper, more experienced, and better.

The only injury which could truly halt the Patriots’ season would be one to Tom Brady, as Kevin O’Connell still hasn’t proven himself. While O’Connell’s skill is unknown, Belichick may have found himself another gem late in the draft. Hopefully, the Pats will not have to see his skill development this season. The reason I think Brady’s knee will be a non-factor is because if there was any doubt about his health, Bill Belichick would not have dealt Matt Cassel.

The Patriots will win Super Bowl 44, barring more injuries than they experienced last season.

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So, who do I think the Patriots should draft? Logically, it comes down to who’s left. If Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry is available at 23, then he’s obviously going to be selected. Clearly, this is an improbable situation thanks to Curry’s obvious talent. I think that at 23, the Patriots need to look defensively, especially because their offense has not had trouble putting up the numbers in the last two seasons. Brady, Moss, Welker and the Pats offensive line are still intact for at least one more year, and I still have faith in Ben Watson and Laurence Maroney. With Fred Taylor, the Pats have a trio of capable backs (Sammy Morris, Taylor and Maroney) along with their 3rd down back Kevin Faulk. Defensively, the Patriots have a strong line for the time being, in Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren, but realistically, only two of them will be with the team within the next 3 years. Their starting linebackers are on the wrong side of thirty, with the exception of Jerod Mayo, and even though Shawn Crable is highly spoken of by the organization, we still don’t know what he is capable of doing. In terms of defensive backs we made some progress with our ever depleted corner back position by signing Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden. Personally, in terms of corner backs we’re fine, because Terrence Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite both showed promise and Ellis Hobbs is a good, not great, a good corner. Springs and Bodden have both played well, and with proper coaching can put their careers back on the right track. Bill Belichick is the coach, so that shouldn’t be a problem. At safety, we have Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Meriweather I think can be a great safety in this league because of his athleticism, but he needs to fix his tackling, which so far has been improving very nicely. Sanders is a consistent safety who will continue to improve.

Clearly, it is the front 7 of the Patriots that needs help, as most of their linebackers are old, and their line might not be together in the near future. That is why I think we should draft Clay Matthews, because he not only has a great gene pool, but also because he has a massive upside. He improved all of last season despite not playing much in his first few years at USC, and he showed good instincts and sound fundamentals when he played, something that Coach Bill absolutely adores. Matthews should be available at 23, and will be a great fit in New England.

The 34th pick is a very intriguing pick, as it gives teams an opportunity to pick up ‘leftovers’ per say, from the first round at a bargain price. I think New England will go with either Larry English or James Laurinaitis if they’re available, again because they are both coachable players who have solid instincts and are fundamentally ready to play football in the NFL. Also, by drafting these defenders at this time, older linebackers in the system can serve as mentors, and hopefully these young ‘backers will benefit just like Jerod Mayo did. If neither are available, look for New England to draft a defensive lineman, somebody like Michael Johnson, Paul Kruger or Robert Ayers. All of these players have shown vast improvements throughout their college careers, which bodes well for their future talent. I think that Kruger would be the first two be selected from these three, because he is a solid pass rusher and run stuffer, unlike Ayers and Johnson who both are more pass defending linemen.

This is a very important draft for New England, because they can set some solid foundations of future team growth defensively, and can keep their 3-4 year window of winning more Super Bowls intact.

1. Tom Brady will be back. Matt Cassel played well. Extremely well, however he was not able to fully utilize the deep threat to Randy Moss. Cassel is a great accurate, dink-and-dunk quarterback, similar to Brady when Tom was younger, however Tom can make the short throw AND the long throw. Cassel was great, but Brady is better.
2. Our Running Backs will be healthy. Okay, last year was crazy. Three out of our four running backs were injured, and all for significant periods of time! No way that happens again. Even if one, or two go down, we have a lot of depth there. Sammy Morris is a great runner for 4-5 yard carries, consistently, as he is fairly quick and packs a punch when he runs into a defender. He also is very good at hitting the holes. Lamont Jordan is a great guy for those tough, 2-3 yard situations, just because of his size and because he’s so hard to bring down. Laurence Maroney is good for 5 yards a carry, if he achieves his potential. He can run over defenders, juke them out, and has a powerful stiff arm move. If BB can utilize these three running backs so that Jordan gets 4 carries a game, Morris gets 10, and Maroney gets 10, meaning they split the load, then they will stay healthy and fresh. Plus, Kevin Faulk can always be thrown into the mix. If any of the backs get tired? No problem, there ar at least two more capable starters. And yes, I believe that Maroney will stay healthy this year, as will Morris, as both are learning to keep their bodies healthy, specifically Maroney, who is learning that it’s better to get tackled than to get injured.
3. Our cornerbacks are good. Ellis Hobbs is a solid corner, and can cover pretty much all the #2 wideouts in the league, and can occasionally shut down a #1 guy. He is a little bit slow on the deep ball, however with Brandon Meriweather’s ball hawking skills and recovery speed, that should be less of a problem. Also, Jonathan Wilhite showed promise at the end of last season. He was able to intercept the ball, and make some big defensive plays. He is a great option to cover the #3 receiver, and occasionally the #2 wideout. Now, not he showed his rapid improvement towards the end of last season, and if he continues to improve, he can become a very, very good corner in this league, because of his instinct. Lastly, Terrence Wheatley was getting better before he injured his wrist.  He is very similar to Wilhite, except that he is a little bit more of a speed corner as opposed to a wrap-up tackler. He is a good tackler, and if improves at the pace he was before he got injured (He shut down Reggie Wayne while playing the Colts before he went down), then he will be a great corner in this league, even a shut-down one. Just because he wasn’t a first rounder, doesn’t mean he can’t be good. Even Jonathan Wilhite. Remember, Asante Samuel was a 3rd rounder.
4. The safeties will be better. James Sanders is improving, and Brandon Meriweather led the team in picks (4) despite only starting 10 games. Sanders is a good, consistent tackler, and Meriweather is a great ball hawk, who is quick and has developed a real knack for the ball. He is working on his tackling, and once he becomes a better wrap-up tackler, his occasional big hit will be glorified. Also, Tank Williams, who was overlooked to to his pre-season injury, is a great safety. He also can play linebacker if need be, and he is a very, very consistent tackler, who posesses enough speed to flow with tight ends and most wide receivers.
5. The line is good. Both lines. The offensive line last year was great after getting used to Cassel’s style, and with Brady back, (or even with Cassel if Brady can’t go) then they will dominate, similar to the ’07-’08 season. Last year, we saw what the Pats defensive line could do with the three men healthy. Warren did go down towards the end of the year, however when they are healthy (which they were for 14 games last year, and will do the same next year) they are dominant. Richard Seymour. Need I say more? Quick, powerful, great at batting down passes and rushing the passer. Vince Wilfork is just a mountain in the middle, and Ty Warren is an underrated run stuffer, who has the ability to get to the QB.
6. Ben Watson will be better. He will be used more offense, as he has become a better blocking tight end, and his route running has improved. He is a great run after the catch tight end, and like Antonio Gates, is very athletic and very fast.
7. Our linebackers will be better. Jerod Mayo will improve, Adalius Thomas won’t be injured, and Mike Vrabel will at least be consistent. Also, Pierre Woods will be a stronger back-up, and a more useful option after his experience last year. Also, Gary Guyton showed promise according to Bill Belichick before getting injured, so he will provide some depth. If Bruschi can come back after his injury, great, he is not great anymore, but he is good, and knows how to play. Also, the Pats will probably address their linebacker issues in the draft, even with Rosevelt Colvin and Junior Seau.
8. The defense will be deeper next year. Similar to last year, the Pats will probably go all out defense during the draft, to address depth issues at linebacker and safety, as well as grab a #3-#4 cornerback. The Pats will either go safety or linebacker in the first round, and whichever way they don’t go, they will probably choose in the second. I think they will choose a linebacker in the first round, especially after how well Jerod Mayo played last year. Then, in the 3rd, they’ll probably go for a corner, and in the 4th and 5th round they’ll look for secondary players in general. Because they have Tank Williams, who can play linebacker, they don’t need to draft 3-4 backers this year, rather only 2-3. That’s why I think they’ll draft a backer in the 6th round, and then leave the 7th round up to possibly a special teams guy who’s primary position is cornerback.

I think this is how the draft will shape up:

Round

1. Linebacker

2. Safety

3. Cornerback

4. Cornerback/Safety (somebody who has the versatility to play either)

5. Safety/Cornerback (same as above, however more of a safety)

6. Linebacker

7. Lineman/Small Linebacker

Overall, the Pats will just be better defensively, and will be able to utilize all of their weapons offensively. Even though the Pats lost Pioli and McDaniels, I believe that that the coaching of Bill O’Brien will be fine in replacing Josh, and Belichick has a very similar and uncanny knack for getting a steal pick, similar to Pioli.  Plus, I don’t expect the Pats to get hit with 20+ injuries again this season. And when healthy, this team has shown (2007-2008) that they really can’t be beat*. So, if the Pats made, and almost won the Super Bowl* with an extremely similar team, which has an improving defense, then shouldn’t they be able to do it again?

• *Note: The Giants won because of an attrocious offensive game, and the David Tyree catch 1) never happens again and 2)Richard Seymour and Ty Warren were being held on that play (look at the replay)