NESO'S TAKE ON SPORTS

The Patriots have never been afraid to trade down in the draft, seemingly trying to rack up as many second round picks as they can. Is this a smart strategy, both financially and in terms of the players they’re getting.

Well, looking at the 2003 NFL Draft (six-seven years to determine a player’s worth in the NFL seems reasonable), the drafting strategy of New England seems exceptionally brilliant.

First Round:

In the first round, 32 players were taken. Of those 32, 23 belong to an NFL franchise or were released into free agency this off season. Players who have been free agents for the past two years are considered “finished,” and therefore are considered out of the league (despite being free agents).

Of the 23 players still in the league, 12 of them are Pro Bowlers.

Second Round:

In the second round of the 2003 NFL Draft, 32 more players were taken with their hopes of playing in the NFL finally fulfilled.

Unfortunately for some, only 20 of them are currently living the dream; that is 20 of the 32 drafted players are in the NFL right now.

There were five Pro Bowlers drafted that round, out of the 20 total players.

Salaries:

The Average amount of guaranteed money assigned to a first round pick totaled at $6.482 million dollars in 2003, and in 2007 it was $10.86 million; the average guaranteed contract is increasing.

At 67% over four years, lets say (for the sake of argument) an increase of 16.8% per year in average guaranteed money to a 1st round pick, although many experts agree that the average contract is rising exponentially.

Nonetheless, a growth of 16.8% yearly means that in 2008, the average amount of guaranteed money can be expected to lay at $12.68 million/year.

In 2008, the average salary of a second round draft pick was $1,932,000 in guaranteed cash, $1.932 million.

This sum is 1/6 of the average 1st round salary.

Let’s go back to the number of NFL caliber players in each round.

In the 1st round, 72% of the players have had reasonable success, while in the 2nd round, 63% have remained in the league.

However, for your chance to increase 9% drafting a legitimate player, is it worth paying 600% as much? Not quite…

One could argue, well, if I’m drafting a pro bowl player, then yes, I’d pay that much more.

In terms of Pro Bowlers, 37% (34% excluding Larry Johnson, whose career has presumably blown up) of the players drafted in the 1st round are Pro Bowlers, and 16% of the 2nd round players hold the same status.

Essentially, there’s about a 20% higher chance of you drafting a Pro Bowler in the 1st round than in the second, that’s one in five players.

Again, I’ll ask the question: Is a 20% chance worth a 600% increase? If you are a team who is in dire  need of players who can make an immediate difference, then yes, pay up.

Overall:

But, if you’re the Patriots, and already have a core of star-caliber players, then this money saved can be used retaining the team’s free agents, along with making their stadium better or paying a big name free agent (okay, well, hypothetically).

Obviously, a team needs to draft first rounders to keep adding youth to their star players, and the Pats do need to draft a “now-impact” type pass-rusher in the draft this season, and will most likely do so in the first round.

However, if New England can hit on two of their three 2nd round draft picks, something that is not out of question as last year the only legitimate bust from the 2nd round was Ron Brace (and the jury is still out on him), then they should be poised for future succes.

About those other second rounders: Pat Chung was a solid special teams player, Darius Butler displayed some flashes of brilliance, and Sebastian Vollmer shut down the likes of Dwight Freeney.

So, if the Pats can hit on the majority of their second rounders, then they’ll have built a good supporting cast of young players from the past two years of drafting, along with the starting star players and the potentially solid 1st round pick.

Thus, I propose that the question concerning stocking up on second rounders is very conditional.

If a team needs “now” impact players, then keeping their first rounders should serve them well, but if looking for more salary cap space and a strong group of supporting cast players which a team can count on to provide valuable talent, then picking up second round picks is a blessing.

What do you think? Are the Pats doing the right thing for the team (both now and in the long run) trying to stockpile second rounders? Should they try at all costs to grab first rounders?

If you enjoyed these ideas, you might want to see what the Pats can do to Contend for the SB Next Season.