NESO'S TAKE ON SPORTS

The playoffs have arrived, and just like last year, the ALDS will feature the Boston Red Sox against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Unfortunately for Boston, the Angels have homefield advantage, as they were the division winners. Will this year play out like last year? Will the Sox simply stomp harder on the Angels’ throat?

Or will it be the other way around? Will the Angels get rid of the monkey on their back, and start a post season run against the Red Sox?

Position by position, this is NESO’s breakdown of the Red Sox’ 2009 ALDS.

Position	Red Sox' Player	Angels' Player	Winner
1B	Kevin Youkilis	Kendry Morales	Kevin Youkilis
2B	Dustin Pedroia	Howie Kendrick	Dustin Pedroia
SS	Alex Gonzalez	Erick Aybar	Erick Aybar
3B	Mike Lowell	Chone Figgins	Chone Figgins
LF	Jason Bay	Juan Rivera	Jason Bay
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury	Torii Hunter	Torii Hunter
RF	J.D. Drew	Bobby Abreu	Tie
DH	David Ortiz	Vladimir Guerrero	David Ortiz
C	Victor Martinez	Mike Napoli	Victor Martinez
Pitching (Starting and Bullpen)	Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Matsuzaka, Papelbon	Lackey, Weaver, Kazmir, Saunders, Fuentes	Red Sox (Starting and Bullpen)
Manager	Terry Francona	Mike Scioscia	Terry Francona
Verdict	Red Sox	Angels	Sox Win in Four

First Base:

Kendry Morales vs. Kevin Youkilis

Kendry Morales has more home runs than Youkilis and more RBI, but both share an almost identical batting average. Youk sits at .305 with Morales at .306. However, Kevin Youkilis has a far better On Base Percentage.  Youk’s OBP this season was .413, a significant 58 points higher than Kendry Morales’ .355.

Morales clearly has an advantage with the power numbers, but in the postseason, and in tight late inning games, getting on base will be the deciding factor.

Also, Morales has struggled in limited post season appearances. First off, a negative factor for Morales is just that: He does not have nearly as much playoff experience as Youkilis. Kendry has played in seven career post season games, Youk in 26.

Also, Youkilis has played better in October.

Home runs and RBI would be useless to compare, as Youk has a clear advantage based purely on the fact that he has played more games. However, Kevin has a .333 career post season batting average to Morales’ insignificant .231. Yes, Morales has improved vastly this season, but that improvement does not necessarily contribute to more postseason success.

Look at A-Rod. Even on Roids, Rodriguez struggled in clutch situations. Morales may certainly produce this year, but that is an if.

Lastly, Youkilis has a .998 fielding percentage with one error to Morales’ .994 with eight errors. Miscues on playable ground balls will give the opposing team free base runners, and with both teams posessing base stealing speed (majorly Figgins on the Angels, Ellsbury on the Sox), the team with less miscues will have a slight advantage.

That seems obvious, doesn’t it? Of course it does, and it should, but there is an advantage nonetheless.

Overall:

Morales has put up more electrifying numbers over the season, but Youkilis is a consistency freak with exceptional fielding abilities. If  (again that’s a big “if”) Morales can produce like he did during the regular season, then I would give him a slight advantage over Youk, but he will be facing top pitching everyday and will be unable to whale on weak pitchers. Plus, Kevin simply has more experience.

Advantage: Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox

Second Base:

Dustin Pedroia vs. Howie Kendrick

This head-to-head match-up is clearly dominated by Pedroia. In an “off-year” for PD, where he hit .296, he still had more hits, home runs, RBI, and stolen bases than Kendrick. Not to mention his higher fielding percentage (PD was at .990 with Morales at .988), higher batting average (Kendrick batted .291) and higher On Base Percentage.

Not only statistical dominance over the season, but also over the past postseasons. Pedroia has a .262 post season average (albeit not great) to Kendrick’s weak .148.

Granted, Pedroia’s worst playoff hitting experiences came against the Angels, but he does have more experience than Howie and still possesses a higher average.

Overall:

Dustin Pedroia dominates Howie Kendrick in all major hitting and fielding categories, both regular season and post season.

Advantage: Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox

Shortstop:

Alex Gonzalez vs. Erick Aybar

Erick Aybar, at first glance, would seem to be better offensive player than Alex Gonzalez, as he hit .312 with five home runs. Gonzo, when playing with the Red Sox, hit five home runs (the same amount as Aybar in 1/3 the amount of games) and batted .284.  Alex is a much better defensive shortstop than Aybar, as he fielded .994 to Erick’s .983.

I do think Aybar is a better overall player than Gonzalez, as he bats with a high average, but people must remember that Gonzo has fared completely differently offensively with Boston thus shrinking Aybar’s offensive advantage.

In the postseason, neither player has fared very well, both batting under .200. Although Gonzalez does have an edge (.165 to .105) the fact that he’s batting .165 really nullifies the advantage.

Overall:

Neither hitter possesses great power or speed, but Aybar hits with a higher average. Gonzalez is definitely the better defensive player, and as stated previously that is a major factor in the postseason.

Advantage: Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, but by less than a hair.

Third Base:

Mike Lowell vs. Chone Figgins

Mike Lowell is characterized by his grit, consistency and clutch hitting ability, but his overall numbers have dipped since his 2007 campaign. Chone Figgins on the other hand is in the prime of his career, and possess sensational baseball abilities all around.

He batted .298 this season to Lowells’ .290. Mike Lowell did amass more home runs and RBI, but Chone Figgins is a lead-off hitter who’s roll on the team is to get on base and dominate the base paths.

Lowell has an inferior OBP to Figgins, and it isn’t even worth bringing up Lowells’ steal numbers in respect to Figgins’. (For the record, he had 2). While caught 17 times, Chone still managed a very respectable 42 steals.

Defensively, Lowell used to be a better player, but as they say, father time is undefeated, and the two currently possess near equal fielding percentages (both around .967).

Lowell is a better post season player than Figgins’ is in terms of statistics, but both are experienced enough to make the necessary big plays. Lowell (discounting last post seasons at-bats when Lowell was essentially hitting on one leg), is about a .275 hitter. However, Figgins is a .205 hitter.

Overall:

Despite Lowells’ higher power numbers and similar batting average, Figgins is a more valuable player, as he is a key asset to the Angels team and is a sensational table setter for the rest of the lineup. Plus, his base stealing ability will terrorize the Red Sox’ team which has been unable to catch runners stealing bases.

Advantage: Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, but mainly based on his base stealing ability which will work well against Boston.

Left Field:

Jason Bay vs. Juan Rivera

Juan Rivera has a higher batting average than Jason Bay (.287-.267) but Bay has more RBI, home runs, stolen bases and a significantly higher OBP (.384-.332). Also, Bay has not made an error this season, whereas Rivera committed two.

Essentially, Rivera has a higher batting average, but that’s it.

Overall:

Batting averages are important in the postseason, but Jason Bay has performed at a much higher statistical level in every other category, including OBP, meaning that Bay still manages to reach base more often than Rivera.

Advantage: Jason Bay, Boston Red Sox

Center Field:

Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Torii Hunter

There’s not much to compare here. Hunter holds an advantage in nearly every offensive category, with the exception of course being stolen bases.

Jacoby Ellsbury is a more electrifying player, with 70 steals to Hunters’ 18, but Hunter is as good a fielder as Ellsbury, and while his batting average was lower (.299 to Jacobys’ .301), he has a higher OBP and more home runs. Furthermore, Hunter has better postseason performances than Ells.

Overall:

Essentially, Ellsburys’ role with the Red Sox is similar to that of Chone Figgins’ with the Angels, as a table setter. Ellsbury is developing into a sensational leadoff hitter, and his major weapon is obviously his speed. He will wreak havoc against the Angels’ pitching staff, but Torii Hunter is simply a better offensive player than Jacoby currently is. Hunter is more of a threat, but if the Angels overlook Ellsburys’ ability, he will do damage.

Advantage: Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Right Field:

J.D. Drew vs. Bobby Abreu

As with anything concerning J.D. Drew, health plays a large factor.

Drew batted .279, less than Abreu’s .293, but Drew managed to have a higher OBP than Bobby, as he ended with .392. Abreu ended at .390.

J.D. is a better outfielder in terms of fielding, and if he plays like he did towards the end of the season he will be a major force. Drew has not been as good in the post season as Bobby, but Drew has enough postseason experience to keep him composed during times of pressure.

Overall:

Bobby Abreu is a huge asset to the Angels, and is a large reason for their recent jump in on base percentage and walks, as he has influenced them in terms of working the count. Drew is a better player if healthy, but again, that’s a big issue with J.D.

Currently, Drew is healthy, and his offensive numbers were comparable to Abreu’s. Drew gets on base more and is a better fielder, but Abreu’s impact on his team is massive.

Advantage: Tie. J.D. Drew is healthy and while he does have more home runs and a higher OBP, he has a lower batting average and has not influenced the Red Sox nearly as much as Abreu has influenced the Angels, something that cannot be overlooked.

Catcher:

Mike Napoli vs. Victor Martinez:

Victor Martinez is a far better offensive player than Mike Napoli. He batted .330 to Napolis’ .272 and hit 23 bombs to Mike’s 20. Also, his OBP was 30 points higher than Napolis’, as Victor ended at .381. Martinez is simply more of an offensive threat.

Defensively, neither are exceptional catchers, but Napoli has a slight edge becuase of his ability to throw out runners. While he’s not great, Napoli is a bit better than Martinez defensively, but that advantage can be easily overlooked when you see that Martinez plays an average first base and has much better offensive numbers.

I’m not too much of an RBI guy, because I feel that a lot of RBI comes with a lot of players getting on base ahead of you, meaning that it is not a solely individual stat like the home run or batting average. However, Martinez had 108 RBI, which is significantly more than Napoli’s 56. Even if Mike had as many plate appearances as Vmart, he would still be well short of Martinez’s mark.

While Jason Varitek is no longer the main man at catcher, he is still a presence calling the game, and may play when Beckett is pitching. When he calls games, Angels hitters will need to focus harder, as Tek’s preparation and skill at managing a game is spectacular. His batting and fielding are well worse than what they used to be, but because he’s not going to be starting the majority of the games, he does not hurt Martinez’s case.

Overall:

Martinez is not quite the defensive catcher that Napoli is, but Napoli is not nearly the offensive player and threat that Martinez is.

Advantage: Victor Martinez, Boston Red Sox

Designated Hitter:

David Ortiz vs. Vladimir Guerrero

Ortiz had a horrific first half, but since his first home run on June 6th, he leads the Majors with home runs. Guerrero batted .295, but again, Papi in the second half of the season is a different player than in the first half, so his .238 average is tinted.

The fact is, Papi is on a hot streak, and has success against the Angels in the past. Think back to…… Every post season the Sox have played against the Angels. Exactly, Papi is great against them.

He has also had success against the Angels’ closer Brian Fuentes, something that may prove useful come late game situations.

Overall:

Guerrero is no slouch at DH, but Papi has been playing better as of late the majority of the league, and his clutch postseason hitting cannot be overlooked.

Advantage: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox, but only by a little

Starting Pitching:

Game 1:

Jon Lester vs. John Lackey

Lester pitched more innings, had a better ERA (3.41 to 3.83), threw more strikeouts, and had a better record. Hard not to go with the guy that not only performed better in the regular season, but has also proven himself in the playoffs.

Overall:

As previously stated, Lester had a better season and has proven himself to be a better postseason pitcher.

Advantage: Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox

Game 2:

Josh Beckett vs. Jered Weaver

Jered Weaver performed slightly better than Beckett in the regular season, but not by much. Plus, Beckett’s stats are slightly tinted by a back injury which he pitched through, causing his ERA to be higher than it should. Nevertheless, Beckett had more K’s and wins, with less losses.

Also, Beckett is one of baseballs’ best postseason pitchers, and has dominated the Angels in the postseason. Beckett did have late season back issues, but he is expected to be fully healthy for the postseason.

Overall:

Beckett and Weaver both had similar seasons (Beckett finished with a 3.86 ERA and Weaver with 3.75), but Beckett had more wins and less losses than Weaver. Plus, Josh’s postseason dominance is hard to argue against.

Advantage: Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox

Game 3:

Scott Kazmir vs. Clay  Buchholz

Clay finished the season exceptionally well, going 4-1 with a 2.87 ERA, but Kazmir has had success against the Sox in Fenway over his career. He is 2-2 with a 1.73 ERA.

Kazmir has postseason experience, going to the World Series with the Rays, but this will be Buchholz’s first postseason start.

Overall:

Buchholz ended the season extremely well, but Kazmir’s postseason experience is very valuable for a pitcher to have.

At this point, I’d say Kazmir has the advantage just because of his experience and success at Fenway, but if Buchholz is able to hold is own he is a dangerous pitcher.

Advantage: Scott Kazmir, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, again though, by a hair

Game 4:

Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Joe Saunders

Daisuke had an atrocious first part of the season, but after coming off the DL he’s been great, going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA. Plus, Daisuke will be well rested and healthy going into the playoffs, and he is a great post season pitcher. He has participated in big Sox’ post season games and has pitched Japan’s biggest game in the World Baseball Classic.

Saunders was 16-7 with a 4.60 ERA, (both better than Daisuke) but Matsuzaka came into his own after coming off the DL.

Overall:

Matsuzaka is one of the best “pressure pitchers”. Saunders isn’t bad himself, but Matsuzaka certainly will be more composed.

Matsuzaka has been healthy recently so he’ll be pitching like the Daisuke we’ve seen over the past few weeks, if not better.

Advantage: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox

Bullpen:

The Red Sox had the second best bullpen in the AL this year in terms of ERA. They are deeper than the Angels with Jonathan Papelbon, Billy Wagner and Hideki Okajima along with the young flamethrower Daniel Bard.

Brian Fuentes, the Angels’ closer, piled up a lot of saves this year, but he gives up a lot of runs. Ervin Santana, a previous starter for the Angels, has been pushed to the bullpen, so he will be able to eat up innings if he needs to pitch in a long game.

The Red Sox have had success against Fuentes in the past, and this year should be no different.

Overall:

The Sox have as much depth but overall more skill in their bullpen, and the addition of Billy Wagner has only strengthened the already strong unit.

A major factor here is that Jonathan Papelbon is just better than Brian Fuentes, both in the regular season and the post season. Paps has yet to give up a run in his postseason career.

Advantage: Boston Red Sox

Bench:

Casey Kotchman is a great player at first base, and is certainly capable of starting (he did with the Angels). Nick Green and Jed Lowrie have both been plagued by injuries this year, but they are average hitters and average defenders with average speed.

However, the Angels major weapon of the bench comes in the form of Gary Matthews Jr. and Maicer Izturis. Izturis is a great hitter who can play a good short stop or second base. Izturis hit .300 this year, and he has enough speed to steal the occasional base (13). Matthews’ major strength is fielding, as is an amazing outfielder and possesses good speed.

Overall:

The Sox have more depth, and about the same amount of skill as LA. Kotchman started on the Angels, and he is a consistent player.

Matthews Jr. is weak at the plate, but Izturis is capable of doing damage.

Advantage: Tie. Both teams feature benches which have average hitting, but the Angels have an excellent fielder in Matthews Jr. Nick Green and Lowrie are both average defensive shortstops, but Jed Lowrie has had success against the Angels in the past, as last season he had a game winning hit in the playoffs against LA.

Manager:

Mike Scioscia vs. Terry Francona

Francona has won two World Series over the past 10 years, Scioscia only one. Francona has won two World Series through the Angels, but the Angels have never beaten the Sox in a playoff series.

Both are great managers, but Francona knows and remembers what winning tastes like, whereas Scoscia is still thirsty for a win against Boston.

Terry knows what it takes to beat Anaheim, and while Mike is a sensational manager, I do not believe that he is as strong as Francona.

Advantage: Terry Francona, Boston Red Sox

The Verdict:

The Red Sox in Four.

It will be a more competitive series than in previous years, but the Sox simply have an overpowering 1-2 punch in Lester and Beckett, and Buchholz has pitched well this season. Also, Matsuzaka is a sensational big game pitcher, and I think he’ll be the pitcher of the deciding game four (which as I said, the Sox will win).

Also, the Sox’ lineup features a bunch of hitters who have high OBP’s, something that Angels hitters have just begun to become accustomed to.

The Angels’ bullpen has not been able to control the Boston lineup in the past (especially this season) and Boston features great power hitters and speed with some batting average guys in between.

The Angels are a good team, but the Sox are stronger.